Some commentators believe an indictment will actually improve Trump’s chances of winning the nomination. Are they right?
Not really. The principal effect of an indictment would be to increase the size of the wedge between the 30 percent and the 70 percent within the GOP. It would undoubtedly strengthen the connection between Trump and the diehard 30 percent, but their allegiance was never really in doubt, anyway. The 70 percent already thinks he’s a loser; the prospect of nominating someone under indictment will intensify that opinion.
The real question is whether any one candidate can win an overwhelming majority of the 70 percent. DeSantis seems to think they belong to him by default, which may or may not turn out to be correct. An indictment will make it even harder for him to filch the 30 percent from Trump. Where are his votes going to come from?