Donald Trump has the unconditional love of about 30 percent of the GOP electorate. It would follow that the logical approach for his challengers is to wrap up the other 70 percent. DeSantis, however, is determined to compete for the 30 percent; he is positioning himself as an even harder right alternative to Trump. It seems suicidal. Why is he doing it?
I think he is basing his campaign on these premises:
- There are no other candidates in the race with enough appeal to sweep the 70 percent. He will ultimately be perceived as the only plausible alternative to Trump. As a result, the 70 percent will fall to him by default.
- Mirroring Trump’s prejudices (policies is too strong a word) is the best way to keep his voters on board after the primaries are over.
- Running on the extreme right won’t hurt him during the general election, either because the state of the country will be so lousy, the voting public will vote for anyone but Biden, or because Biden’s age will catch up with him during the final sprint.
All of these assumptions are debatable, to say the least. He could be right, but the odds are against him.