We shouldn’t try to sugarcoat it; the Saudi-Iranian agreement is a slap in Joe Biden’s face. Saudi Arabia clearly views America as an unreliable partner and wants to go on its own way. MBS would prefer to hang out with his fellow autocrats–Xi and Putin–than with annoying democrats who hector him on human rights while asking for lower oil prices. Using a Chinese mediator to midwife the deal is proof of that.
But is this such a bad thing for America? Biden clearly wants to disengage in the Middle East and focus on China; this will help. One less potential war in the Middle East is a positive, not a negative, development. America no longer has responsibility for any diplomatic or military mistakes that MBS may make, or for his autocratic rule. If radical Islam makes a comeback, the counterrevolutionaries won’t be able to point to us as the ultimate guarantors of MBS’ government. Finally, it means America is the only game in town for Israel if it wants a war with Iran. That gives us more leverage over Netanyahu and his radical right-wing pals.
You can consequently make a decent argument that we are better off than we were two days ago. The same cannot be said for the Israeli government, which probably believed that the march towards normalization could not be stopped. The security alternative of a Saudi alliance is gone, at least for the moment. It is America or nothing.