In what can only be described as a diplomatic revolution, the Saudis and the Iranians made a deal yesterday. Both sides agreed to reopen their embassies, and the Iranians presumably promised to stop attacking Saudi oil fields and cut their support for the Houthis and other Shiite militant groups. The deal was brokered by the Chinese. In addition, the Saudis named their price for normalization with Israel; the requested concessions were all demanded from, not Israel, but the US, as if we were the chief beneficiary of the deal. These terms will not be accepted by the US government.
For the Iranians, the agreement is a painful concession to reality; the Islamic Republic is overstretched and unpopular at home, and can no longer afford to confront all of Sunni Islam as well as America and Israel. For the Chinese, it is a way of flexing diplomatic muscles and ensuring a stable flow of oil. For the Saudis, it is a declaration of independence from the US, a trend that started in the last phases of the Trump era and has accelerated under Biden. MBS, as I noted in a previous post, shares a number of characteristics with Xi; with Chinese support and no real external security threats, he is free to exercise his autocratic powers to remake his country in any way he likes. The previous subservience for security deal with America is now superfluous–at least, as long as the new agreement holds, which is subject to question.
All three of these nations are the apparent winners of the deal; America and Israel are the losers. Are they, really? I will address that question tomorrow.