Here they are. Don’t take them to Vegas:
- DEBT CEILING CRISIS: After about a month of excruciating twists and turns, a revolt of the handful of moderates in the House results in a deal with only symbolic gains for Republicans just before the deadline.
- IMPERIAL SUPREME COURT: The counterrevolution lives! The Court eliminates affirmative action in school admissions (with language likely applying its reasons to other forms of affirmative action), gives federal courts effective jurisdiction over only those election issues that favor Republicans, destroys Biden’s student debt forgiveness plan, and permits the litigation on Title 42 to continue. There is plenty of grumbling about the Court’s legitimacy, and judicial reform emerges as a key issue in the 2024 election.
- INFLATION/INTEREST RATES: Inflation eases. The Fed continues to talk ferociously, but decides not to cause a deep recession in order to bring the rate down from about four to two percent.
- BIDEN RUNS: While DeSantis has emerged as the clear GOP favorite, Biden ignores my advice and runs without meaningful opposition from the left.
- DESANTIS RULES: A large and motley crew of Republicans runs for president, most of them figures from the Trump days. They are still standing at the end of 2023, but it is clear from all of the polls that the race boils down to Trump and DeSantis. Their relationship has gone from strained to poisonous, to the benefit of everyone whose brain operates in the 21st century.