Here is where the two GOP titans stand with the factions:
- REACTIONARIES: Trump has effectively split them into two groups. The “Burn it down” crowd will support him through thick and thin; its members view his outrageous behavior as a way of keeping faith with them. The Constitutional Reactionaries mostly agree with his agenda, but deplore his unattractive personal qualities and object to January 6. They think America can be returned to the 1950s without any dramatic change in liberal democracy.
- PBPs: They generally despise Trump, but appreciate his support for business tax cuts and deregulation. Their relationship with Trump and DeSantis will be purely transactional.
- CLs and CDs: The CDs, once a mainstay of the party, have mostly left it over the last decade. There are very few genuine CL voters.
The bottom line here is that Trump cannot win a head-to-head matchup with DeSantis with just the “Burn it down” vote because it doesn’t represent a majority of the party. DeSantis has the Constitutional Reactionary vote in his pocket. The CLs and CDs won’t come out in large enough numbers to matter much. The key questions are whether DeSantis can win over the PBPs by adhering to strict GOP orthodoxy on tax cuts and deregulation, and whether additional candidates will split that vote and throw the election to Trump.