An optimist would look at the first two years of DeSantis’ term as governor and conclude that he is a cynical, ambitious opportunist who inadvertently stumbled into the reactionary political brand that he now wants to ride to the White House. Once in office, he would govern as a competent mainstream Republican. You might see some performative actions against the left every now and then for the benefit of the base, but they would be practically meaningless. He doesn’t represent anything like the threat to the country that Trump does.
A pessimist looks at the last two years of DeSantis and sees the Hungarian Candidate: a man who will single-mindedly use the power of the federal government to deprive his opponents of as many legal rights as possible. He may not be the same kind of overt threat to our institutions as the American Caligula, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous.
Which view is correct? I’m honestly not sure. I will say one thing about it, however. There were plenty of people in 2016 who thought Trump was a brilliant, pragmatic businessman whose worst instincts would be curbed by the Axis of Adults. To cite a more extreme example, there were also plenty of Germans in 1933 who believed that Hitler was just a clownish nationalist demagogue who would be controlled and manipulated by the military and conservative industrialists. We know how that turned out.
In short, it is too dangerous to give DeSantis the benefit of the doubt. He’s the Hungarian Candidate until proven otherwise.