Opposition to abortion, which used to be a unifying idea among Republicans, has become a wedge issue after Dobbs. The party has two factions: genuine pro-lifers, who won’t brook any thought of compromise, but who typically are open to improvements in the welfare state for the benefit of women; and pragmatists, who will only push the envelope far enough to remain in power, and who have no interest in expanding the welfare state for anyone. How will DeSantis try to bridge the gap?
Trump, based on his public statements and his past behavior, is a pragmatist. DeSantis consequently risks nothing by taking the same position. His actions in Florida–supporting further, but relatively mild, restrictions–are consistent with my prediction. He will give us lots of pro-life rhetoric to keep the base happy, but deliver little in practice.