It’s the question that Reagan used to devastating effect in 1980. With the midterms coming up in a few months, it is fair to ask it of the first part of the Biden regime. In this post, I will be addressing material concerns; in a second post, I will discuss some of the right’s cultural concerns.
The answer to the question is complicated, as follows:
- The unemployment rate has fallen from over 6 percent to 3.5 percent. If you were unemployed in January 2021, and subsequently found a job, you are clearly better off.
- If you had pre-existing debt, inflation has made you a winner. You are paying off your debt with depreciated dollars.
- If you own your home, it is probably worth significantly more than it was in January 2021. Count yourself a winner.
- Business interests have had some difficulty adjusting to changed conditions, most notably, supply chain problems and labor shortages. Nevertheless, the DJIA is up from January 2021, and corporate profits have soared. You are probably better off than you were back then, although you have some reason to worry about a recession in the foreseeable future.
- If you had a job and kept it, or found a better one, the first few months of Biden were excellent, because you increased your savings and received a stimulus payment. Since then, however, your wages probably haven’t kept pace with inflation. You may or may not be better off today than you were in January 2021, based on the state of your savings, but the immediate future doesn’t look that great, barring a decrease in the inflation rate.
- If you’re trying to buy a house, or renting, you are definitely worse off, due to soaring housing costs.
- If you’re a retiree, you were protected from inflation to some extent by the indexing of Social Security. Your stocks are still up from January 2021. Your bonds may not be. It’s a mixed bag.
The bottom line here is that there is no clear verdict; it depends on your individual circumstances. There is nothing in the Biden record, however, which suggests that a red wave is appropriate.