I don’t know the answer to that, of course, but there are three possibilities:
- My initial plan was based on the assumption that Ukraine wouldn’t fight. It turned into a disaster. I have since gained enough ground to call the campaign a victory and avoid humiliation at home. Once my gains in the Donbas have been rounded off, I will lower the intensity of the war, look for a reasonable negotiated peace, rebuild my military, and wait for a better opportunity in the future–perhaps after Trump wins in 2024.
- The current plan is working reasonably well. The combination of low-level conflict (which limits my casualties), the blockade, and gas cutoffs may force both Ukraine and NATO to make a deal that is highly favorable to me over the winter. It’s what I should have been doing all along. If that doesn’t work, we’ll revert back to #1.
- I’m determined to take Ukraine, come hell or high water. There are no limits to what I will do, including the threat of nuclear war.
I think he has gone beyond #1. #2 is very plausible. God help us if it is #3.