The UK is in a bad way. The combination of Cameron’s budget cuts and increased demands from the pandemic has left public services hanging by a thread, and demographic changes will only make things worse. Under other circumstances, it would be time to increase public spending. But the deficit is sky-high, GDP growth is abysmal (largely due to Brexit, of course), and inflation is roaring. The public is getting restless. What should the new government do?
One group of Conservative constituents will be calling for a new burst of Thatcherite rigor: major spending cuts, largely aimed at the elderly, and deregulation in order to ramp up the growth rate. Another group will call for more spending, inflation and the pound be damned. The next PM will probably zig and zag between the two at first, but in the end, the choice cannot be avoided.
My guess is the Thatcherites will win, and what used to be the “red wall” will be so again. We’ll see.