The Trump campaign is based on two essentially contradictory propositions:
- I can get things done because I am a dealmaker with few ideological interests other than in making America rich and powerful again; and
- I am a strong man who kicks the butt of America’s enemies, both foreign and domestic, without making any apologies. A true strong man, of course, doesn’t have to make deals; he simply imposes his will on his adversaries.
The issues that has been raised by many commentators is whether Trump can pivot to the center in a manner similar to his GOP predecessors in order to win uncommitted moderate voters. The reality is that the situation is more complicated than that; the more precise question is whether Trump will emphasize the dealmaker or the butt-kicker from here on in.
Here are my predictions:
- The emphasis in the general election campaign will be on Don the Dealmaker. He is a harder target for Hillary than Don the Wallbuilder.
- Expect to see some evolution (or, if you prefer, flip-flopping) on issues like the minimum wage and huge tax cuts for the wealthy.
- He won’t disown his previous comments on illegal immigrants and the wall, but he will spend less time on these issues.
- Since social conservatives have nowhere else to go, he will present himself as a moderate on issues such as LGBT rights and abortion.
In short, you won’t see a “pivot” so much as a change of emphasis to the black box who operates outside of party and gets things done.