To the surprise of nobody, Florida Republicans are agitating for a special session to consider legislation reducing the period in which abortions are legal from 15 to 6 weeks. Will DeSantis go along?
From his perspective, this is a tricky issue. On the one hand, he has always been ready to feed red meat on culture war questions to the base; why would he change now? On the other hand, he is comfortably ahead in the polls; this would add a new element of uncertainty to the campaign. In addition, he can’t be completely certain that the Florida Supreme Court would uphold a six-week limit in light of previous precedents and language in the state constitution protecting the right to privacy. Finally, while his other culture war gambits on CRT and the like are broadly popular, eliminating abortion rights is not. It would be a big risk.
If I were DeSantis, I wouldn’t do it; I would let the Florida Supreme Court rule on the 15-week limit and go from there. My guess, however, is that he will ignore my advice. Looking forward to the presidential primaries, either in 2024 or 2028, he will want to avoid looking soft on abortion relative to the even harder right.