On Running the Blockade

In the early stages of the war, I imagined a scenario in which NATO, through neutral countries, had to airlift supplies to Kyiv. While that turned out to be unnecessary, a similar situation, on a larger scale, is evolving today. The Russian naval blockade is preventing Ukraine from exporting grain through the Black Sea, with severe consequences to the entire world.

The best solution to this would be for the Ukrainians to use NATO weapons to break the blockade. That may not be possible. Barring that, at some point in time, NATO will probably have to organize and provide military support for a convoy of merchant ships from neutral countries to run the blockade. It would be dangerous, to be sure. But Stalin didn’t shoot down the American planes in 1948; would Putin really have the nerve to risk World War III for such a limited purpose, particularly in light of the support it would cost him in the rest of the world?