I’m not as bearish on the 2022 election as most commentators, because: inflation will likely be easing by November; the GOP has to defend more Senate seats than the Democrats; GOP gerrymandering has not been as successful as Mitch would hope; the abortion issue should help somewhat; and increased polarization sets the floor higher for both parties than it was in the past. Nevertheless, the smart money is on the GOP winning both the House and the Senate this year. Then what?
Here’s what we can anticipate. First, there will be no meaningful helpful legislation until 2025 at the earliest. Second, there will be a barrage of frivolous Benghazi-like investigations, mostly starring Hunter Biden, who will be portrayed as a latter-day Al Capone. Third, there will be a blockade on judicial appointments. But most importantly, GOP vandalism will be expressed through a debt ceiling crisis that will be the worst we’ve ever seen. Mitch will do his best to keep the lights on, but McCarthy believes in appeasing his extremists, so the House will make ludicrous demands, probably starting with the reinstatement of Trump as president, and then moving to something more “reasonable,” such as defunding Obamacare. Biden will refuse, and then . . . a financial disaster lurks.
While this is going on, the Supreme Court will be blowing up our ability to control guns, pollution, and climate change, and may be reversing course on gay marriage. It’s not a pretty picture.
In the longer run, the Democrats could win the presidency again in 2024, but the potential for a renewed constitutional crisis is very real. In addition, the playing field tilts towards the GOP in the Senate races, and the filibuster will still be in place. The likelihood of using the federal government to solve our very real problems will thus be minimal for the foreseeable future.
We know the right wants to blow up liberal democracy and Orbanize America. How long will it take before the left loses faith in the system, as well? To that question, I have no answer.