To my knowledge, even our most militant right-wing chicken hawks (think John Bolton here) aren’t contending that NATO should openly enter the war and march on to Moscow. With that possibility excluded, there are three plausible acceptable military outcomes for the war:
- Russia is completely expelled from Ukraine, as it existed prior to 2014;
- Russian troops are thrown back to the line as it existed prior to the 2022 invasion; or
- Russian troops remain in control of the land they have taken in the Donbas, but no more.
It is important to note that all three of these outcomes represent a massive strategic defeat for Putin. He has increased the size of NATO, shattered his economy, unified Ukraine against him, and destroyed the myth of overwhelming Russian military competence, all for some fairly useless land in Ukraine, for which he will now have to take responsibility. In that sense, even #3 would be a great victory for NATO.
That said, which of the outcomes makes the most sense? #1 would represent a complete military victory, and would best send the message that aggression doesn’t pay. It is the Dateline option: the bad guy gets his just desserts. Unfortunately, it is extremely unlikely without open NATO involvement in the war. The Ukrainians simply don’t have the men and the firepower, even with advanced NATO weapons, to make it happen, and if it did, Putin would probably escalate with WMD in a way that could cause World War III.
Option #2 is more plausible, still sends the message that aggression doesn’t pay, and doesn’t threaten a wider conflict, based on Putin’s behavior to date. Option #3 gives Putin a reasonable off-ramp, and limits the deaths and war damage within Ukraine, but doesn’t send the anti-aggression message as clearly as we would like.
In the final analysis, the shape of any settlement will depend on the attitude of the Ukrainians. Biden is right to give them the weapons they think they need to negotiate a reasonably acceptable peace, but not to threaten regime change or attacks within Russia’s borders.