There is every reason to believe that Vladimir Putin is in Ukraine to win it. The Ukrainians and their allies can force the Russians to pay a heavy price, but in the end, they cannot prevail in a purely military sense. That leaves the question–can anyone at home change Putin’s mind as to the costs and benefits of the invasion?
Here are the possibilities:
- A POPULAR UPRISING: Don’t hold your breath. Putin, as far as we know, has complete control over the means of repression, and most of the population is supporting the war, albeit tepidly.
- THE OLIGARCHS REBEL: In another society, this would be a major source of concern. In Russia, however, the oligarchs owe their position to Putin–not the other way around. They will undoubtedly grumble about their frozen assets, but they probably won’t try to get rid of him, because the risks of failure would be too great.
- MILITARY COUP: Could the leadership of the military decide that Ukraine is a bridge too far? If the war goes badly, and Putin appears to be out of touch . . . maybe.
- THE SOLDIERS ON THE GROUND MUTINY: It’s doubtful things could get bad enough on the ground for that to happen. Military discipline is a very powerful thing.
Realistically, there isn’t much hope here, unless Putin is less committed to the invasion than he appears to be at this time. The best chances are #2 and #3; the most realistic alternative is a grubby compromise that trades NATO and EU membership for sovereignty on other issues.