Last April, I posed a question: since Putin could take Ukraine at any time of his choosing, why had he not done so? I listed a number of possible explanations, including lingering doubts about the quality of the Russian military, concerns about sanctions, and the impact on public opinion in America and Europe. In addition, I threw out the possibility that Putin simply didn’t want to embarrass his good buddy Donald Trump while he was in office, and predicted trouble in the future.
Now that the invasion has occurred, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Biden’s victory in 2020 removed one of the disincentives for war. It is ironic, to say the least, that the presidency of a man who was flamboyantly and obnoxiously pro-Putin, and who famously hated everything associated with Ukraine, might have been Ukraine’s last line of defense.