It’s December 2024. Biden has just won another narrow victory over Trump–for now. But Trump is screaming about fraud, and right-wing militias are on the streets. We are seeing scattered acts of violence throughout the state. And certification has not taken place yet.
The state elections board and the legislature are dominated by Trump-loving Republicans. They are under tremendous pressure from the base to refuse certification of the Biden victory–in other words, to overturn the results of the election. If they acquiesce, we are in for a constitutional crisis. If they don’t, who knows how far Trump and the militias will go to get their way?
In my opinion, this is the single most plausible way for Trump to steal the election, if it is close, and if the GOP controls state government in enough states won by Biden to make up the difference in electoral votes. Any reform legislation from Congress consequently has to address this scenario to be meaningful.