As I’ve noted several times before, Ukraine, while important in and of itself, is to Putin just a small piece in a larger game. Its greater significance is as a wedge issue with NATO and the EU, and as a rallying cry at home. The timing of the crisis is consequently driven by Putin’s falling popularity and his interest in testing the relatively new American and German governments.
The West cannot stop Putin from taking Ukraine; it can only make him pay a steep price for doing so. Biden’s primary objective is the purely negative one of preventing the Russians from accomplishing theirs. How can that be done?
By making sure that Geneva is not Munich. Don’t say anything provocative that Putin can use with his domestic audience, but don’t give Ukrainian independence away or make concessions that will split NATO. If any deals are to be made, they should be based on mutual self-interest, not on the desire either to avoid war or to save Ukraine at any price.
Fortunately, as far as I can tell, this is exactly what the American negotiators are doing.