Here are the biggest issues we’ll face this year, with my predictions in parentheses:
- Will the virus finally become endemic, like the flu, so we can get on with our lives? (Herd immunity is now a distant dream, due to the anti-vaxxers and our inability to vaccinate the rest of the world. We will, however, reach endemic status late in the year, although there won’t be a single dramatic point when that is realized.)
- Will any of our outstanding foreign policy crises lead to war? (Russia does not invade Ukraine, and China does not attack Taiwan. Israel launches an air assault on Iran, with some material assistance from us. A threat of massive American retaliation limits the war to the Middle East.)
- Will Biden and the Fed bring inflation under control without causing a recession? (The combination of tough talk, limited action, and improvements to the supply chain reduces the inflation rate significantly by Election Day without crushing the economy or the markets.)
- Will the Democrats be wiped out in the election? (Intense polarization, improving conditions, and an electoral map that is more favorable in 2022 than most people think limit the blue team’s losses. The Senate stays status quo; the narrow Democratic majority in the House becomes a narrow GOP majority. Kevin McCarthy now has a big job on his hands.)
- Will Trump announce he’s running for president after the election? (No. He won’t make his decision until 2023.)
- Will some form of the BBB get through Congress? (A much smaller and more focused version of the bill passes. Progressives finally understand that most of their plans are pipe dreams and grab what they can get.)
As you can see, playing against type, I’m relatively optimistic about 2022. Happy New Year!