I have always believed that Netanyahu’s ultimate goal was to force the United States to cut the grass in Iran, while the Israelis watched and cheered us on. In public, however, he argued that withdrawing from the nuclear agreement and applying “maximum pressure” would force the Iranians to capitulate without a war. Trump bought into this line of thinking, with results that are troublesome for the US, and potentially disastrous for Israel. Today, the Iranians are much closer to building a bomb than ever before, and are showing no inclination to return to the original agreement.
So, what now? Biden wants to keep his focus on containing China, not on entering into a perpetual low-intensity war in the Middle East; in any event, if you accept that an Iranian bomb is an existential threat (an extremely debatable premise), it is to Israel, not to us. The Israelis, for their part, insist that they don’t have the military capability to do the requisite damage to the Iranian nuclear program by themselves. The Bennett government, as a result, is making it pretty clear that, in the face of Iranian intransigence, Biden is morally obligated to become Israel’s yard guy.
My guess is that he will refuse. He may facilitate an Israeli lawn mowing operation by providing them with access to advanced American weapons, however. We’ll see.