Germany After Merkel: China

It can be hard to remember now, but there was a time about 20 years ago when Germany was viewed as the sick man of Europe. Two developments changed that: first, the labor reforms introduced by the SPD government, which cut costs and made German products more competitive, at the cost of added inequality; and second, the tremendous demand for German products generated by the Chinese. German machine tools and Audis were particularly prized. But what about now?

The commercial and political relationship between Germany and China is changing. The Chinese no longer require German technology; their new objective is to make the Germans their dependents, by purchasing just enough German products to prevent any objections to their views on human rights. Merkel probably was aware of that, but nonetheless emphasized the protection of short-term interests of German exporters instead of standing on principle. Will her successors do the same thing?

I think we will see more idealism and less coddling of exporters from the new government. Neither the SPD nor the Greens will be naturally sympathetic to big business. Relations between the two great exporting nations are going to get a lot rockier.