Putin’s list of demands makes it clear that I was right; the crisis is about building support at home and trying to divide NATO, not Ukraine. That means an invasion is unlikely, if not impossible.
How should NATO respond? With a carefully worded statement which makes it clear that: the current crisis is completely due to a gratuitous Russian buildup at the border; there are no plans in the foreseeable future to include Ukraine in NATO, or to put NATO troops there; but the ultimate decision as to Ukraine’s NATO membership is not in Russia’s hands.