Is Gay Marriage Next?

Once the reactionaries win on abortion, they are going to move on to gay marriage. Will the Supreme Court go along?

It’s a close call. On the one hand, gay marriage is more closely rooted in the language of the Fourteenth Amendment than abortion, the reliance factor (at least in red states) is greater, and the decision has not been as controversial as Roe in the legal profession. On the other hand, there is no legislative history tying the Fourteenth Amendment to gay marriage, which matters to the originalists, and the decision is relatively recent, which makes it logically easier to overturn.

I think you will see increased pressure on the issue, but it won’t bear fruit for at least a few years.