On the Texas Abortion End Game

Today’s decision only addressed a narrow issue relating to parties. The case can go ahead, but it isn’t going anywhere fast. What is the end game here?

The Supremes are clearly uncomfortable with the vigilante aspect of the law, because it is a potential threat in blue states to some of their favorite parts of the Bill of Rights. As it stands today, it is likely that they will be presented with a final decision to review after they overturn Roe in the Dobbs case. Texas is likely to repeal the vigilante law and replace it with a state-enforced total ban after Dobbs. At that point, the current case will be moot, and the justices won’t have to rule on the vigilante elements of the statute, which can nonetheless remain in effect until Dobbs is over. Even if they do take the vigilante case, for reasons I can’t currently fathom, they could distinguish abortion from, say, gun rights simply by referring to the decision in Dobbs that abortion is not a fundamental right.

Dilemma solved.