As I noted in a post about a year ago, Putin could invade and take Ukraine at any time of his choosing. His purported concern today–that he fears NATO expansion into Ukraine–is ludicrous, and he knows it. So what is he trying to accomplish, and why is this happening now?
As important as Ukraine is to Putin, it is never the entire picture; he is also concerned about domestic politics, about portraying Russia as a great power, and about splitting the EU and NATO. All of these factors are undoubtedly present here. Russia is struggling with the virus; he is facing a potent anti-vaxxer opposition; there is a new and untested government in Germany; and the American withdrawal from Afghanistan wasn’t exactly glorious. There is undoubtedly opportunity here to make trouble and profit from it.
Will he invade? I doubt it, because it would involve taking lots of casualties and assuming the costs of occupying Ukraine for the indefinite future. The new EU and American sanctions would hurt, and NATO would be united in its opposition. Better to keep turning the pressure on and off and hope that Ukraine falls into his hands without an invasion at some point in the future. In the meantime, he can show strength both at home and abroad, take the attention of the Russian public away from the virus, create a narrative in which Russia is in danger from NATO, and test the stoutness of the new German PM and FM. He can put an end to the crisis whenever he likes, so what’s the risk?