In the end, it was TACO Tuesday. Trump and the Iranian regime agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The Iranians will permit unrestricted use of the Strait of Hormuz for that period, and Trump will stop bombing. The Israeli campaign in Lebanon will continue. What should we make of this?
The brief ceasefire just kicks the can down the road. The war, as of now, has accomplished less than nothing. The Iranians still control the strait, the enriched uranium is still there, the regime is still in place, and the Gulf states are still vulnerable.
Trump will spend the next two weeks searching for more leverage to bend the Iranians to his will. If, as I expect, he can’t find any, we’ll just go back to fire and fury.