In an NYT interview with Ross Douthat, a guy named Mark Dubowitz portrays Iran as a kind of cartoon villain. The Iranians, he says, were determined to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz, so it is better to confront them now, at their weakest point, rather than later. Does that make sense?
Only if the premise is correct, and it isn’t. There is no evidence to suggest that the Iranians were going to close the strait in the absence of an existential threat to the regime. There was no massive buildup of forces designed for that purpose even after the 2025 war. The Iranians didn’t even rush for a bomb when it was feasible after Trump tore up the nuclear agreement. All they did was enrich uranium to the point that it increased their options.
A feeble missile capability and a system of forward defense doesn’t amount to a plan for world domination. It was only Trump’s war that caused the regime to escalate. Now we have to live with the results.