Everything I am reading indicates that oil prices should be much higher than they are based on the current supply deficit caused by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and possible future damage to production facilities. What is keeping them down? TACO—the markets think Trump will back down and end the war ASAP.
But what if Trump throws another tantrum, and we get TADD instead? Investor confidence will be thrown on its head, and things will get very dire very quickly.