We have passed the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine war. At this point in World War I, which it resembles in many respects, the slog in the trenches was over, and it was clear that the Germans were on their last legs. Can we expect similar developments in the current conflict?
From the Ukrainian side, no; conditions can only get worse. Putin can reasonably hold out hope that Trump will impose terms on the Ukrainians, or that Europe’s efforts on Ukraine’s side will be paralyzed by extreme right-wing parties. He can also turn the screws even tighter on his subjects if he is willing to accept the political risks. As a result, he can and will keep on fighting, regardless of the costs to his country.
In short, the most likely outcome is that the war will continue as it is now; the second possibility is a clear Russian victory.