Trump and Rubio are predicting the implosion of the Cuban regime following the loss of its last major benefactor. We’ve been hearing that prediction for 60 years, however. Is this the time it comes true?
Life in Cuba is even more wretched than before. If misery alone caused communist regimes to fall, however, the USSR would have died in the 1920s, and Mao’s government would have collapsed during the Great Leap Forward. Obviously, the answer lies elsewhere.
The regime will fall when the leadership doubts the merits of the system, loses its taste for repression, and tries half-measures of reform. That’s what happened to the USSR.