I noted in my introduction last year that I had less confidence in my predictions than usual. The caveat was appropriate; the predictions didn’t age that well.
- NO IRAN WAR: I predicted that Bibi would push for war, but that the Iranians would snow Trump with promises while building the bomb. That was, in fact, the strategy, and it was working until Bibi decided to act unilaterally. Trump subsequently piled on when it appeared he could do so without much risk. The war was limited and, in the end, inconclusive. Bibi is now pushing for more grass cutting. Trump is unlikely to oblige.
- GAZA WAR WINDS DOWN: This one was generally on target. The war is sort of over, but no meaningful political progress has been made, and none is likely in the near future.
- UKRAINE WAR ENDS: I predicted that Trump would move from being an active party supporting Ukraine to a mediator, that Putin would be intransigent, that America would refuse to give meaningful security guarantees, and that the Ukrainians would accept a bad deal in the absence of better alternatives. Most of this has come to pass, but the war obviously isn’t over yet. We have heard that the American negotiators have agreed to guarantees similar to Article 5, but until Trump signs off on that, it should be taken with a grain of salt.
- CHINESE RECOVERY: I thought Xi would finally agree to a large stimulus program to stop the rot. Instead, he doubled down on exports and alienated the rest of the world in the process.
- MACRON RESIGNS: This one was a total bust. Macron won’t even agree to new parliamentary elections. As a result, the far right is in an even stronger position to win the presidential election in 2027; the public has no evidence of the right’s inability to govern and reason to believe that Macron, not the right or left, is the source of instability. This won’t end well.
- AMERICAN IMPERIALISM: We may well be on the verge of a war with Venezuela. This one was mostly accurate; the timing is off slightly.