Why We Don’t Have 2019

Trump’s plan for the economy in his first term was a variant of Abenomics–stimulate the economy with large tax cuts, keep interest rates low, and see what happens. Up until 2020, it worked pretty well. Unemployment was low, the markets rose, and there was no meaningful inflation. Life was good.

Biden tried the same trick under different conditions, and it failed. Broken supply chains led to inflation, and large doses of federal spending made it worse, although American growth figures were the envy of the world. The deficit and interest rates went up. The public was unhappy.

Trump 2.0 is an attempt to recreate 2019 in a changed world in which inflation is a real threat and the deficit and interest rates are significant constraints. His tariffs and deportations, which were not a major factor in 2019, are only making matters worse. Growth is down, unemployment is up, and inflation hasn’t budged. It doesn’t look like an A++++ economy to me or anyone west of Washington.