To his credit, Trump isn’t really a warmonger, so it is safe to assume that the military buildup in the Caribbean is intended to pressure Maduro to leave peacefully. Unfortunately, Maduro knows that, so he is unlikely to comply. Then what?
My guess is that Trump’s plan would consist of a targeted strike on Maduro himself and a combination of bribes and threats to keep the rest of the Venezuelan security apparatus in line. The opposition would then come to power without the benefit of an invasion. Could that work?
It could, but it probably wouldn’t, and hope is not a strategy. If Trump really wants regime change, he will have to suck it up and order an invasion; air strikes alone would not be sufficient. I suspect he would have to use around 50,000 troops for that purpose. Would MAGA be happy about that? Would Congress authorize it? TBD.