The GOP managed to hang on to a House seat in a ruby red district in Tennessee yesterday, but the swing against them was 13 points. A column in today’s NYT tells us that this swing is completely normal, both in this election cycle and in previous midterms. In spite of all of the handwringing about the state of the Democrats after last year, barring an unforeseen improvement in the economy or a descent into pure fascism, this means the blue team should do very well in 2026.
The end of the Trump era is on the horizon. Almost exactly a year ago, I speculated that SCOTUS would show more independence if the administration was polling badly. Will the prospect of a Democrat in the White House in 2028 cause Roberts and his allies to think twice about enhancing executive power in the short run?
I suspect it will, particularly on issues (think tariffs) on which the GOP is already badly divided.