The first year of Trump 2.0, as expected, focused on wrecking and retribution. The last two years will be devoted to the succession. But what happens next year? How will Trump define his legacy between now and the midterms?
Here are the most critical questions:
- WILL THE ECONOMY IMPROVE, COLLAPSE, OR CONTINUE TO LIMP ALONG? You can make a case for any of the three scenarios, although I think the GOP optimists are clearly wrong about the end of the short-term pain. Much depends on the presence or absence of large external shocks and whether AI is a bubble or not.
- WHAT HAPPENS WITH CHINA? Trump has just been treading water with China. He clearly wants to make some sort of massive deal with Xi, but no one knows what it is. Perhaps we will find out before the midterms.
- HOW FAR WILL TRUMP GO WITH THE BLUE STATES? He has just been toying with authoritarianism thus far. The Hegseth right-wing militia, formerly known as the US military, should be purged and ready to go to war with the left in a year or so. Will Trump take the plunge or back off? TBD.