Ross Douthat thinks the Democrats lost in 2024 because they moved too far to the left. That’s too simplistic. Here are the issues that really cost the blue team the election, and where they stand in 2026:
- INFLATION: Americans blamed Biden, with less justification than they thought, for inflation. Trump promised to reduce costs, but his entire program is built around actions that increase them. This gives the Democrats a huge advantage in 2026.
- IMMIGRATION: The public wants an immigration system that is both orderly and humane. Biden paid the price for the lack of order; the GOP should be punished for its lack of humanity in 2026.
- CRIME: Crime had already fallen dramatically by November of 2024 and is continuing to fall. However, the GOP has a structural advantage on this issue; even local news stations in blue cities talk incessantly about violent crime, because it drives up ratings. The blue team needs to do everything it can to bring clarity on this issue, but its expectations shouldn’t get too high.
- TRANS PEOPLE: The GOP has done about everything it possibly can to oppress trans people over the last few years. I don’t think this issue will resonate as much next year, but the GOP will ride it as far as it can go.