The markets aren’t just Pollyannaish about AI; investors are assuming that Trump and Bessent can implement their counterrevolutionary economic plan without any severe short-term damage arising from a rupture with China. But what if they’re wrong? What if, for example, Xi needs to swagger as much as Trump does?
There is just so much that can go wrong here, starting, of course, with Trump’s capricious decision-making process. My investments are telling me that life is good, but I can’t see how it can last, and a lot of people are going to get hurt.