Apparently in response to some new initiatives from Trump, China has escalated the trade war by imposing increased port fees and making rare earth exports more difficult. Trump initially responded by lashing out and threatening huge new tariffs on November 1. He subsequently suggested that Xi was just having a bad day and that the new tariffs might not happen. J.D., in the meantime, tried to assure the public that Trump would ultimately win the trade war, as he has more cards than Xi. What should we make of this?
Under the present circumstances, Trump does not, in fact, hold the cards, which is why his behavior towards China has been so erratic. That is due largely to the fact that he has obligations to the voters, a problem not shared by the CCP. He could flip the script by giving a Churchillian speech demanding years of painful sacrifices from Americans, but the likelihood of him imposing major hardships on his base as well as blue America is extremely low. Instead, he will probably wind up making a geopolitical deal which gives some short-term economic benefits to America and a secure Asian sphere of influence to China.