How Much Credit Does Trump Deserve?

With regard to Hamas, none. He had no influence or leverage over the terrorists. As I noted in a previous post, Bibi’s apparent lack of interest in freeing the hostages destroyed any leverage Hamas might have had; in fact, their continuing presence in Gaza was giving the Israelis an excuse to prolong the war. As a result, Hamas made the eminently rational decision to make the best deal possible and move on.

With regard to Bibi, some; he had more leverage with the Israelis than Biden did, and unlike Biden, he was willing to use it. The agreement, vague as it is, clearly contemplates a future for Gaza that doesn’t correspond to the fevered dreams of the extreme right-wingers in the Israeli cabinet. That represents an encouraging change in Israeli policy for which Trump is clearly responsible.

But Phase One is small potatoes. It is Phase Two that matters. Will Hamas really agree to disarm and relinquish control over the civilian population? Will Israel really agree to pull completely out of Gaza and end the fighting? Both of those events have to occur for this to be a real peace deal, and I have serious doubts about both.