On Regime Change in Venezuela

There is a decent case for regime change in Venezuela. First of all, Maduro is a thug who has trashed democracy and impoverished his people. Second, and more importantly, there is an opposition with proven democratic support. As a result, there would be a reasonable chance of decapitating the regime with minimal bloodshed, installing the true winners of the last election, and then leaving. No nation-building required here.

There is no guarantee that the regime wouldn’t fight back, however. In addition, Trump has done nothing to prepare the American people for a sustained war except to engage in the Putinesque tactic of calling Maduro a drug dealer. Finally, you can be sure that Trump will demand compensation from the new government in the form of oil revenue concessions. The rest of the world will then see the American effort as old-fashioned imperialism and unite against us.

Would that be worth it? Trump doesn’t care about world opinion, so he would probably say yes. I do, so I would say no.