Trump would appear to have the public relations edge in the battle over the shutdown; after all, it is Congress that failed to pass the CR, not him. That’s the way it has always worked for Democratic presidents in the past. But will the same dynamic prevail this time?
Trump would have to portray himself credibly as the powerless protector of the federal workforce and the public interest to win public sympathy. Since he prefers dominance to powerlessness, at least while he is in office, he is instead using the occasion to threaten public employees and punish blue states and cities. Is bullying helpless victims likely to win the GOP more votes in 2026? The elections in Canada and Australia and the polls in Brazil suggest the answer is no.