The playing field is tilted against the Democrats in the Senate in 2026. On paper, the blue team needs to flip four seats to regain control. In reality, barring an economic collapse in the next two years, this is highly unlikely. The good news, however, is that Collins and Murkowski aren’t reliable GOP votes, so the Democrats really only need to flip two seats outside of Maine to deny Trump the approval he will seek for his most radical nominees. Which seats could these be?
The open seat in North Carolina is the most obvious opportunity. The second choice would probably be Ohio, particularly if Sherrod Brown decides to run against Vance’s appointed successor. Brown is a proven vote-getter, and he could have some success campaigning against the spending cuts in the BBB. I also suspect that Ramaswamy will be the GOP candidate for governor; given his anti-worker prejudices and rhetoric, he could well be a drag on the ticket for the right. On the other hand, Brown is a vocal supporter of tariffs, so his position on Trump’s protectionism will have to be nuanced, and nuance doesn’t usually play well in elections.
The bottom line here is that wrestling effective control of the Senate away from Trump would have some real benefits for the Democrats and the country, and the outlook is best described as partly cloudy. That’s not as good as sunny, but it could be a lot worse.