SCENARIO 1: Trump 2.0 is viewed as a success by a majority of the population. The economy is strong, and America is at peace. THE NOMINEE IS: A young, charismatic progressive with an ambitious agenda to remake America. The Democrats are going to lose the election in any event, so why not swing for the fences?
SCENARIO 2: Trump 2.0 is almost universally viewed as a failure. The economy is in the dumps. Any reasonably plausible nominee could win. THE NOMINEE IS: The same young, charismatic progressive. America is too far gone in this scenario for moderate remedial measures, and Trump has opened the gates to radical change with his contempt for liberal democratic norms.
SCENARIO 3: Trump is polling around 40 percent. The Democrats are likely to win, but who knows? THE NOMINEE IS: A moderate governor who promises to return us to normalcy with incremental and pragmatic change within the McConnell version of the Constitution. In other words, a younger and more energetic version of Biden in 2020.
The wild card here is whether the DOJ and the FBI will attempt to intervene in order to keep the GOP in power. The blue team needs to be prepared for that possibility.