As I’ve noted many times before, Biden’s ambitious plans to defeat the dollar store economy were defeated by inflation, rising interest rates, and a lack of votes in the Senate. The public noticed and was displeased. As a result, Biden couldn’t run on his record, and he couldn’t provide a plausible narrative of change, either. Harris inherited the same problem; in the end, her only persuasive argument was about Trump’s failings. It wasn’t enough.
J.D. Vance purports to be a populist, and may even mean it, but the populist elements of the BBB are only a tiny fraction of the total. Like Harris, he will be stuck running on its results in 2028. Fear of the base will prevent him from putting any distance between himself and Trump. If the public decides the Trump economy is a loser, he will pay the price for it; he will have nowhere else to go.