The BBB just passed the Senate by the smallest of possible margins. Collins voted against it; Murkowski reluctantly voted for it. While I won’t speculate as to their actual motives, from a political perspective, those votes make sense; Murkowski is vulnerable to an attack from the right, while the danger to Collins comes from the left. Collins can now disclaim any responsibility for what happens to the economy in the next few years, which will help her in the next general election.
Will the Senate bill pass the House? The House SALT warriors appear to be satisfied with the Senate’s compromise, which leaves Medicaid spending and the deficit as the remaining sticking points. The few remaining CDs won’t like the additional Medicaid cuts, but they had already embraced the concept of massive reductions by voting for the House bill, so the difference there is only one of degree. As to the CLs, they will be very disappointed in the final product, which they will view as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity gone begging, but their initial tough talk is usually followed by acquiesce to Trump and the leadership. Don’t expect this episode to be any different.