Events are occurring as I predicted, but slightly faster; Israel and Iran have agreed to a cease-fire, although there are indications that it has been breached already. In any event, both sides need a break; the Israelis are running out of plausible targets, and the Iranians are running out of missiles and hope. Even if the cease-fire doesn’t hold, the war will end–for now–shortly.
The Iranians have apparently rejected the most dramatic forms of retaliation, which is good news in the short run. That doesn’t mean they won’t retaliate later; they just want to wait until conditions improve, from their perspective.
Don’t expect Iran to come back to the bargaining table. Whatever doubts the leadership had about building a bomb have been resolved. The program is going deeper underground and will be more dangerous than ever.