In the end, Trump sided with Team Bibi’s Lawn Guy over Team America First. We will be feeling the repercussions of that decision for years to come.
Here are my initial reactions:
- Launching a war of choice with no authorization at all from Congress is unconstitutional–not that he cares.
- Trump’s claim that the attacks were completely successful is just typical sales talk. The fact is that he doesn’t know, and neither do we.
- Trump’s hope that Iran won’t retaliate is a pipe dream. Nothing in the Islamic Republic’s history suggests it will lie down and call him “Sir.”
- Most of the speculation about retaliation has revolved around attacks on American bases in the Middle East. That possibility doesn’t concern me overly much. The military will be prepared; they have been through this before.
- The forms of retaliation that really concern me are attempts to shut off shipping in the Persian Gulf and cyberattacks. Those would have significant economic impacts that all of America would feel.
- If the retaliation is relatively unsuccessful, would Trump choose to disregard it? Probably not; continuing opposition from a weaker party generally causes him to double or triple down. Just ask Harvard.
- This is not Iraq; I don’t believe Trump will send in ground troops. But any escalation on his part will have unpredictable results, and in any event, he is committing us to cut the grass for the foreseeable future.
- Bibi has won. This is the day he has been waiting for over a period of decades. America will now pay the price for a war that is overwhelmingly in Israel’s interests and only tangentially in its own.