As I expected, the damage caused by the American air strikes was significant but did not put an end to the Iranian nuclear program. What the Iranians do next will undoubtedly be the subject of considerable debate within the regime. Here are my predictions:
- There will be no further meaningful negotiations on nukes. The government will move the program even deeper underground and commit privately to building a bomb as quickly as possible.
- The immediate retaliation will be directed at American bases and will be fairly minimal.
- Further acts of retaliation will take place over a period of years and with limited fanfare. The objective will be to cause as much pain as possible without provoking a massive response.
- The current war will wind down in a matter of weeks. Trump will not escalate. He will, however, have turned himself into Bibi’s lawn guy. America is now committed to a sporadic war in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.
- The regime will tighten its grip on the public, this time with popular support. A viable succession plan will be formulated. The chances that the system will be liberalized after the death of the Supreme Leader have been reduced.